Guinea votes in presidential election expected to entrench transitional leader Doumbouya

Guinea began voting on Sunday in a presidential election widely expected to hand transitional government leader Mamady Doumbouya a decisive victory, completing a tightly controlled transition process back to civilian rule four years after his 2021 coup.

Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. (0700 GMT) across the country, including in the capital Conakry, with only minor delays reported. About 6.7 million people are registered to vote, with polls closing at 6 p.m. (1800 GMT). Provisional results are expected within 48 to 72 hours.

Doumbouya, a former special forces commander thought to be in his early 40s, is running as an independent against eight other candidates in a fragmented field with no strong challenger. Former president Alpha Condé and longtime opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo remain in exile, while several other prominent opposition figures were barred from contesting the vote.

Some voters described the outcome as inevitable.

“The most important thing is that the country returns to normal. I’m pragmatic. I voted for the one who is in office and who ensures the continuity of the state,” shopkeeper Moussa Kaba told Reuters.

“In four years, he (Doumbouya) has connected Guinean youth to information and communication technologies,” said Mamadama Touré, a high school student wearing a T-shirt bearing Doumbouya’s image in the capital, Conakry, citing digital skills training programs put in place by the authorities.

Others were less convinced. Abdoulaye Barry, a civil engineer, said he would boycott the vote, arguing that Guinea was “allowing a man who swore not to run to do so.”

Security was tight in Conakry, with armoured vehicles patrolling the streets. Security forces said they had “neutralized” members of an armed group with “subversive intentions threatening national security” in the capital’s suburbs a day before the vote.

Guinea is rich in natural resources, holding the world’s largest bauxite reserves and the vast, long-delayed Simandou iron ore deposit, which was officially launched last month. Doumbouya has claimed credit for advancing the project and ensuring the state benefits from its output. His government has also revoked the licence of Guinea Alumina Corporation, a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium, transferring its assets to a state-owned firm.

The shift toward resource nationalism, mirrored in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, has boosted Doumbouya’s popularity, particularly among younger voters in a country where the median age is about 19.

“For us young people, Doumbouya represents an opportunity to send the old political class into retirement,” said Mohamed Kaba, a mechanic in Conakry. “There is a lot of corruption right now, but I hope these things will be sorted out.”

Analysts warn that a Doumbouya victory could further entrench military influence.

“If elected, Doumbouya will likely utilise his position to further entrench his power and that of the military over Guinea,” said Benedict Manzin, lead Middle East and Africa analyst at risk consultancy Sibylline. He added that the president was likely to position allies to benefit from the expected economic boom linked to Simandou.

A transition charter adopted after the 2021 coup barred transitional government members from running for office, but a new constitution approved in a September referendum removed that clause, extended presidential terms from five to seven years, and created a Senate. Official results put turnout in that referendum at 92 percent, figures disputed by opposition groups.

“This election will open a new page in Guinea’s history and mark the country’s return to the league of nations,” said Guinea political analyst Aboubacar Sidiki Diakité. “Doumbouya is undoubtedly the favourite in this presidential election because the main opposition political parties have been sidelined, and the General Directorate of Elections — the body that oversees the presidential election — is under government supervision,” he added.

Political activity has been heavily restricted under Doumbouya. Civil society groups accuse his government of banning protests, curbing press freedom, and sidelining opposition parties.

“The campaign period has been severely restricted, marked by intimidation of opposition actors, apparently politically motivated enforced disappearances, and constraints on media freedom,” U.N. human rights chief Volker Türk said on Friday, warning that such conditions “risk undermining the credibility of the electoral process.”

Doumbouya kept a low profile during the campaign, leaving public appearances to his allies. At the final rally in Conakry, he did not deliver a speech but appeared on stage, dancing with his wife, while Congolese star Koffi Olomide performed. He wore a white cap and a track jacket bearing the name of his movement, “Generation for Modernity and Development.”

Opposition leaders, including Guinea's former prime minister, Cellou Dalein Diallo, dismissed the vote as an “electoral charade,” which they say is meant to legitimise the continued confiscation of power. Guinea’s last democratic transition took place in 2010 with the election of Condé, whom Doumbouya overthrew in September 2021.

Provisional results from Sunday’s vote are expected within days. A runoff is planned if no candidate secures an outright majority, though this outcome is widely seen as unlikely.

Edited by CGTN Africa reporter Marion Gachuhi