Editor’s note: Talk Africa is a weekly talk show that brings together guests from across Africa and beyond to discuss pressing African issues and global topics, amplifying the continent’s voice and showcasing diverse perspectives and independent thinking. This episode is the second of the year-end special.

In 2025, Africa’s security situation remains highly complex and challenging. Armed insurgencies and extremist groups continue to destabilize the Sahel region, and conflict persists in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, with rebels taking over strategic towns. Sudan has been de facto partitioned following the fall of Al-Fasher. Despite these challenges, local governments and regional institutions continue to explore solutions, while external actors play an increasingly prominent role.

Looking back at the conflicts and crises that have defined the year, we ask: What fuels conflict on the continent? Why have diplomatic efforts failed to bring peace?

A bleak picture

The 2025 Global Peace Index locates three of the world’s ten least peaceful countries—Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and South Sudan—in Africa.

“Out of the 163 countries we measured sometime last year, which is not significantly different from what we are seeing in 2025, most African countries—such as the DRC, Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Somalia—rank very low in terms of peace and stability. This is the picture across the continent,” says David Otto-Endeley, Director of Counterterrorism and Organized Crime Programs at Global Risk International.

For him, the continent is “drifting toward deteriorating peace and stability,” with risks likely to continue into 2026.

Conflict entrepreneurs’ benefit

The intensifying involvement of external actors in African conflicts characterized the year, introducing a proxy dimension to warfare.

“The emerging relevance of African resources to global economic and technological growth has not only fueled the proliferation of conflicts, but also made them intractable and impervious to regional and continental mechanisms of conflict resolution,” says Dr Hasasan Khannenje, the director of the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Oluwole Ojewale of the Institute for Security Studies says Africa’s conflicts typify “a war economy driven by conflict entrepreneurs, both external and local actors who profit from such development.” For this to happen, Ojewale points out that, first, local elites are complicit, prioritizing personal gain over national interest and enabling external actors to access gold, cobalt, and other lucrative minerals. Second, Africa is undergoing a new form of geopolitical contest where leaders are not pan-African in their thinking and operate instead through transactional arrangements that expose the continent to exploitation.

To counter rising interference, Dr Khannenje argues, Africa must strengthen its own agency or risk losing the capacity to resolve conflicts and to “silence the guns.”

Diplomacy falls short

The East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) merged the Nairobi Process and the Luanda Process in a concerted effort to address instability in eastern DRC. Yet the two regional bodies failed to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table.

“On paper, it appeared as if the SADC and EAC efforts were harmonized, but in practice, this is not the case,” says Dr. Khannenje. He argues that the failure stems from addressing symptoms rather than the underlying issues in the country, which include unresolved questions of ethnic citizenship in eastern DRC, the legacy of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, crippling governance failures in a fragile country of 120 million people, and the persistent pull of the DRC’s immense natural resources.

When local peace processes stalled, Qatar and the US surprised the continent by brokering a peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda, which has been accused of supporting the M23 rebels. However, the peace agreement has not stopped fighting on the ground.

Describing the Doha- and Washington-led talks as “transactional diplomacy focused more on box-ticking than genuine solutions,” Ojewale says the initiative by the two capitals flopped.

“They (Doha and Washington) just peppered over the issues. The fact that M23 is now providing alternative governance in Goma and Bukavu shows that it is ‘not-yet-uhuru’ (independence hasn’t come) in eastern DRC.”

With more than 100 militias operating—including Islamist groups—piecemeal negotiations cannot work, Dr. Khannenje argues, pointing out that true resolution can only arise from a Congolese-led and regionally anchored framework.

Humanitarian toll staggering

A Thomson Reuters Foundation poll has named Sudan the world’s most neglected crisis of 2025. Conflict erupted in 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces over a power struggle, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of millions. To make matters worse, UN humanitarian agencies are facing funding cuts that threaten their ability to carry out their work.

“It appears to me that what happens in Africa ends in Africa. Every day, the humanitarian reports are truly displeasing and depressing,” says Ojewale, adding that global attention is focused on Ukraine and Gaza.

Dr. Khannenje condemns the severe funding cuts as “shameful.” He urges African states and regional bodies to pool resources, establish stronger mechanisms for humanitarian funding, and invite both existing and new partners.

Ojewale recalls that when US development financing retreated, some experts urged turning toward African resources instead. He believes African-led funding is possible, provided there is strong leadership and functional African Union frameworks.

Speaking of US involvement, Otto-Endeley disagrees that it can fundamentally change the trajectory of the Sudan conflict. He cites deep contradictions within the peace process, saying that mediators are entangled in webs of conflict of interest.

“Each of these parties has its own strategic objectives, which may differ from those of the others,” he notes, adding that the solution to the Sudan crisis must be African-led.

“This should be the role of the African Union. Only a Sudanese, AU-driven process involving all stakeholders can lead to a real settlement.”