Africa in 2025: Unlocking economic potential

Editor’s note: Talk Africa is a weekly talk show that brings together guests from across Africa and beyond to discuss pressing African issues and global topics, amplifying the continent’s voice and showcasing diverse perspectives and independent thinking. This episode is the fourth of the year-end special.

According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), Africa’s growth outlook stood at 3.9 percent in 2025 and is projected to rise marginally to four percent in 2026. Growth in about 21 African countries is forecast to exceed five percent in 2025, underscoring the continent’s relative resilience amid persistent global headwinds.

Against this backdrop, how has Africa fared in navigating a challenging global environment? Where has it met or exceeded expectations, and what remains to be done?

Optimistic outlook

In AfDB’s Economic Outlook report, 21 African countries will achieve growth exceeding five percent in 2025, and Africa’s projected growth rates will surpass the global average. The projection comes at a time when US President Donald Trump has started waging a global trade war by imposing “reciprocal tariffs.”

“People were quite pessimistic about the new US administration, but the African economy is proving to be truly resilient on its own terms,” said Sizwe Gcayi, an international trade lawyer and expert.

In his projection, the Ethiopian economy is expected to grow by 8.1 percent, while Uganda and Tanzania are expected to hit 6.3 percent and 5.4 percent growth, all exceeding the global average growth rate of 3.2 percent. On the regional front, the East African region has been the most impressive, followed by West Africa and Southern Africa, added Gcayi, who noted that investment in tech, infrastructure, and agriculture is among the key sectors driving economic growth.

Dr. Francis Mangeni, an advisor to the Secretary General of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), named Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria among the top performers in terms of economic growth. He attributed their fast growth to reforms and the discovery of natural resources.

“We have got the fastest growing, largest number of the fastest growing economies around the world,” Dr. Mangeni said.

Trade woes

US tariffs sent shock waves across the globe throughout 2025, with Dr. Liu Baocheng from the University of International Business and Economics adding that they caused a major disruption in the global supply chain, while the volatility exhibited by the Trump administration made decision-making difficult for the business community.

In China’s case, Dr. Liu said, it has diversified its export markets, with ASEAN countries turning out to be China’s biggest trading partners, followed by the EU.

“More importantly, I think we’re focusing on the entire Global South, particularly Africa,” added Dr. Liu, noting that China-Africa trade has registered double-digit growth over the past decade.

African economies have also felt the pinch. One example is Lesotho, which has suffered from US tariffs on its textile and clothing industry, which used to employ around 40,000 people when it had preferential access to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

However, Gcayi argues that the impact of US tariffs on African economies is minimal, citing the example of South African business activities not being fundamentally disrupted.

"The US has kept out or exempted many products that it needs from Africa, particularly raw materials and minerals, which continue to be exempted from tariffs," he said.

For Dr. Mangeni, the solution lies in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and South-South cooperation.

“I think Africa could have strong leverage if it were able to take collective action, instead of handling matters at the level of individual countries or sectors,” said Dr. Liu, calling for unity in response to US tariffs.

Strides made to unlock potential

AfDB estimates that AfCFTA’s full implementation could increase exports by $560 billion and boost continental income by $450 billion by 2035.

“All the big economies on the continent are now on board, exporting from one country to another across regions.” Another point of progress is that AfCFTA’s legal and institutional architectures have been completed, said Dr. Mangeni, adding: “What this means is that all the protocols are in place, especially the protocol on digital trade.”

The continent also holds immense potential, with 30 percent of global mineral reserves, and could capture over 10 percent of the projected $16 trillion in revenues from key green minerals by 2030. To take advantage of these massive resources, Gcayi recalled some countries, such as Zimbabwe and Zambia, where “legislation is being streamlined, making it easier for investors to package the right mining deals,” with a rallying call to prioritize value addition.

Risks and opportunities in 2026

Looking ahead at 2026, there are some foreseeable risks and opportunities as the world undergoes profound changes unseen in a century. 

As Dr. Liu pointed out, the biggest risks in Africa are conflicts, infrastructure gap and education, while Dr. Mangeni highlighted volatile geopolitics as a potential disruptive factor. Gcayi, on the other hand, chose to magnify the opportunities as Africa navigates through the uncertainties and risks posed by an unpredictable US administration. 

“It is the perfect decolonization regime that has ever been there in America, simply because it lets Africans focus on their problems,” said Gicayi.

On global stage, Africa can leverage partnerships with China and other BRICS nations to industrialize. But as Dr. Mangeni stressed, speaking with one voice is needed.