The rocket fire and blasts between the United States, Israel and Iran may sound distant from African capitals. Yet the echoes travel far, across oil routes, financial markets, migration corridors and fragile security landscapes. What unfolds in the Persian Gulf rarely stays there.

For Professor David Monda, an international relations scholar at the City University of New York, the confrontation is more than another geopolitical flare-up. It is a crisis layered with history, strategic rivalries and global economic risks that could ripple deep into Africa.

Conflict rooted in history

"The tensions between the US and Iran are very real," he says. "They have already led to an almost week-long conflict and the historical animosity between the two countries, especially after the 1979 Revolution, continues to shape how both sides see each other."

He adds that the situation has become even more volatile with the involvement of Israel alongside the United States in attacks against Iran, and the killing of Ali Khamenei and other officials.

"The participation of Israel on the side of the US in attacking Iran complicates this conflict further."

Why Africa should be watching?

To many Africans, the conflict may seem geographically remote. But geography and economics tell a different story.

The Middle East sits just across crucial maritime arteries linking global trade to Africa. 

"This is not just a regional crisis," Professor Monda says. "It is both a regional crisis and a global economic and security risk because these waterways are essential to global maritime trade."

For Africa, the consequences extend beyond shipping lanes. Millions of livelihoods on the continent are tied to the Gulf economies.

"Any conflict in Iran and the Middle East more generally, have major spillover effects in the Horn of Africa. Also, many African countries have their citizens working in the Gulf, repatriating billions of dollars back to loved ones in the form of remittances. Kenya for instance has over 400,000 workers in the Gulf. This represents billions of dollars of remittance."

Security risks closer to home

The conflict could also pull parts of Africa into the strategic orbit of the conflict. Kenya, Egypt, and Tunisia maintain close military ties with Washington as major non-NATO allies. Monda says the US could ask to use military bases and port installations in those countries. Doing so could lead to military retaliation from Iran in attacks on potential military targets in African countries.

Extremist groups operating in Africa may also attempt to exploit the conflict.

Professor Monda warns that instability in the Middle East often energizes extremist networks. Groups such as Al‑Shabaab, Boko Haram, or Al‑Qaeda may exploit the turmoil as motivation for attacks.

History offers a grim reminder. In 1998, coordinated bombings struck US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania killing hundreds and injuring thousands, demonstrating how global conflicts can spill into African cities.

Another concern is the possibility that African nationals could be drawn into the conflict indirectly.

"It is hard to say specifically right now whether African nationals could be recruited, contracted or pulled into the conflict because the conflict has just begun," he explains. 

"With porous borders in many African states and the presence of human trafficking networks in the Horn of Africa," he adds, "the possibility cannot be ignored."

Oil markets and economic shockwaves

Perhaps the most immediate impact for Africa would come through oil markets.

A large share of the world's crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the most sensitive arteries in global energy supply.

"Oil markets abhor uncertainty," Professor Monda says. "US foreign policy goals under Trump have also tended to be amorphous, contradictory and constantly changing. With this in mind, a general oil price rise will be seen over time getting worse as the conflict intensifies and as Iran sees this attack as an existential threat to its survival."

The consequences would vary across Africa. Oil-importing and landlocked nations would feel the sharpest pain, while producers such as Nigeria and Angola might initially benefit from higher prices.

"In the near term, higher prices can help oil exporters," he explains. "But over time, global instability slows economic growth. Demand falls, and that eventually hurts producers too."

Higher fuel prices would ripple across the continent's supply chains, pushing up transportation costs and food prices.

Also, African supply chains to the Middle East shipping routes are significantly exposed.

Pressure on currencies and investment

Economic pressure may not stop there. Rising oil prices could weaken African currencies and trigger inflation.

"African currencies will become battered due to the rising demand for dollars to purchase oil." Professor Monda says. "Inflation will also rise because of weaker global trade, reduced economic activity in the Gulf, uncertainty in financial markets and severe disruptions of global supply chains. 

"There is always the possibility of capital flight," he notes. "Capital could potentially be shipped out to more developed markets outside the continent and/or into gold to preserve investor value and to hedge against risk and uncertainty."

Countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens could find themselves pushed even closer to financial crisis. 

Regions already experiencing conflict such as South Sudan, Sudan, and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo could face the most severe consequences. 

"Rising oil prices means a larger share of their GDP is spent on oil purchases which will mean less money to service debt," he says.

Travel disruptions and migrant uncertainty

Air travel is already feeling the strain. Parts of the Middle East have closed their airspace, and flights between Africa, Europe and Asia were forced to reroute, crowding regional aviation corridors.

"Major hubs in East Africa like Nairobi and Addis Ababa are experiencing a glut of planes arriving in their airspace due to disruptions and closure of airspace in the Middle East," he says.

For African migrants working in Gulf economies, the stakes are even higher.

"Many will lose their jobs and livelihoods due to disruptions in tourism, trade and investment in the Middle East," he says. "Many also risk having to return home due the prolonged uncertainty of the war and a fear for their lives."

That would inevitably reduce the billions of dollars in remittances sent back to families across Africa.

Africa's diplomatic balancing act

In diplomatic terms, most African governments are likely to tread cautiously.

"Most will opt to be neutral," Professor Monda says, "not wanting to be caught up between the belligerents in the Middle East." 

Yet the crisis could also intensify geopolitical competition across the continent. Global powers may look to Africa for strategic resources, energy supplies and proximity to the Middle East.

"Africa will also become more important in light of global instability as a source for rare earth minerals critical for many strategic military defense systems during times of crisis such as these." Monda says

Africa's diplomatic leverage, he says, lies partly in numbers.

"The continent has many votes at the United Nations, and that can matter in international diplomacy," he explains. 

But he is skeptical about how much influence that translates into.

"Major powers often ignore multilateral frameworks when their interests are threatened," he says. "But economically, Africa has limited to no influence simply because of its weak economic footprint in international economic systems."

The most likely outcome

For now, Professor Monda believes the most probable outcome is neither swift victory nor total collapse, but a prolonged stalemate.

"A likely scenario is a political and military impasse where Iran is weakened but not defeated," he says.

Domestic politics in Washington may also play a role. With the 2026 United States midterm elections approaching in November 2026, a prolonged conflict could carry heavy political consequences.

"Trump campaigned against forever conflict in places like the Middle East. Trump is also keen to have the conflict resolved soon because the Republicans could face major political costs during the midterm. The US wants a quick resolution to this standoff because of the low desire from the American public to have American boots on the ground in Iran. This could lead to another forever conflict with many US casualties." he notes.

Meanwhile, Iran may take a different approach.

"The longer the conflict continues, the higher the cost becomes for the US and Israel," he says. "And the more sympathy Iran may gain in the international court of public opinion."

The worst-case scenario for Africa

For Africa, the nightmare scenario would be a prolonged Middle East conflict with a slowdown in global trade and rising terror attacks in Africa, Professor Monda warns.

Policymakers across Africa should keep a close watch on early warning signs.

The outlook, he cautions, remains deeply uncertain.

"It could get worse before it gets better."

And in a world bound together by trade, migration and geopolitics, the distance between the Persian Gulf and Africa may be far shorter than it seems.