African countries projected to borrow $155 million in 2026

African countries are projected to borrow $155 billion in long-term commercial debt in 2026, a 10% increase from the previous year, according to a report by S&P Global Ratings.

The borrowing is aimed largely at refinancing maturing debt and managing rising fiscal pressures. As a result, total outstanding sovereign commercial debt across the continent is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion—roughly half of Africa's combined economic output—by the end of the year.

Egypt is forecast to be the largest issuer, followed by South Africa and Morocco.

However, geopolitical tensions, particularly the fallout from the Iran conflict, could affect borrowing plans and increase the cost of issuing new debt.

According to S&P, disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz may have knock-on effects on inflation, fiscal stability, and financing conditions if the conflict persists.

Many African economies rely heavily on imported refined fuel, meaning any sustained rise in global oil prices could strain public finances. Countries like Angola, which subsidize fuel, may face increased budgetary pressure.

Despite these risks, relatively favorable global financing conditions could offer some relief. Borrowing costs remain lower than in recent years, allowing governments to refinance foreign currency debt more affordably.

S&P also noted that African countries continue to depend significantly on concessional financing from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, helping to keep overall debt servicing costs below those seen in other regions.