Talk Africa: How can Africa cushion itself from the impacts of Middle East conflict? (Part I)

Editor's note: Talk Africa is a weekly talk show that brings together guests from across Africa and beyond to discuss pressing African issues and global topics, amplifying the continent's voice and showcasing diverse perspectives and independent thinking. This episode explores Africa’s dilemma in response to US-Israel war on Iran and examines how to buffer itself from the spillover effects. This article will be presented in two parts.

As the conflict drags on between the US, Israel, and Iran, experts warn that Africa faces a cascade of consequences threatening its economic stability and regional security. What are the likely scenarios for Africa?

Feeling the pinch

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global oil flows and trade—could trigger far-reaching repercussions well beyond the region. Rising oil prices are pushing up the cost of living, fueling inflation, and sending shockwaves across Africa.

Dr. Mustafa Yusuf Ali, Founder and Chairman of the Horn Institute for Strategic Studies, notes that while some states were initially somewhat insulated, other parts of the continent are already grappling with rising fuel prices due to supply shortages.

Adding to the economic impact, Chukwumerije Okereke, Professor of Global Governance and Public Policy at the University of Bristol, argues that the effects of the war will not be felt equally across all 54 African nations. For Africa’s major oil-producing countries, the crisis presents a rare, though volatile, fiscal opportunity. Professor Okereke points out that higher global prices could cushion the national budgets of countries that rely on energy exports. In the short term, at least, oil exporters like Nigeria, Angola, and Algeria may benefit from increased fiscal revenue.

Conversely, for nations that depend on energy imports to keep their economies running, rising costs are purely detrimental. Professor Okereke highlights several countries particularly vulnerable to this price shock, mainly Kenya, Senegal, Morocco, and Ghana. For these nations, higher energy costs will inevitably spill over into other sectors, creating a broader economic challenge, which he identifies as a major concern: inflation. As transport and production costs rise, the purchasing power of the average citizen in these importing countries is expected to shrink significantly.

Beyond the energy sector, Africa’s already fragile food security is also likely to be affected, given its reliance on fertilizer imports from the Middle East—Dr. Ali noted. He further stressed that remittances are another concern: millions of Africans work in the Middle East, and the war has effectively tightened the flow of funds back to the continent, placing additional strain on public finances.

Horn of Africa: the geopolitical conduit

With a heavy US military presence already established in the region, the Horn of Africa faces the danger of becoming a geopolitical conduit.

On the security front, Dr. Ali argues that the Horn of Africa’s dense military infrastructure, which was once seen as a sign of stability, may now be its greatest liability. Central to this concern is Djibouti, a nation that hosts military bases of major powers, which may actually function as magnets for aggression.

Zeenat Adam, Deputy Executive Director of the Afro-Middle East Centre, echoes his view: “When we look at the expansion of some of the military bases in the Horn of Africa, the risk is that if the Gulf states say that they do not want any of the attacks to emanate from their area and territory, the next closest area would be the Horn of Africa, and with the US having those bases here, we could become a conduit for this war.”

The shifting dynamics of the conflict in Sudan present a rare, if fragile, opening for de-escalation. As Zeenat explains, the support for warring factions in Sudan is declining as Middle Eastern powers grapple with their own security challenges. “So that might be an opportunity to try and dissipate the conflict in Sudan,” she says.

For more analysis, click here for Part II.