South Africa navigates a delicate diplomatic tightrope amid Middle East conflict

Editor's note: This series highlights how the Iran war's spillover is affecting Africa. In this episode, South Africa finds itself walking a careful diplomatic line, balancing its historic ties with Iran against an increasingly strained relationship with the United States, one month into the Middle East conflict.

One month into the conflict that erupted between Iran, the United States and Israel, South Africa finds itself tightly strung between competing geopolitical forces, compelled by history, economics and regional solidarity to strike a cautious balance.

Tehran is a fellow member of the expanding BRICS+ bloc alongside Pretoria, while Washington remains a crucial trade partner, even as relations have deteriorated since President Donald Trump's second term began. As conflict rages and global energy routes become battlegrounds, South Africa's leadership is trying to thread a path that defies easy categorization.

South African officials have consistently called for restraint, diplomacy and respect for international law as tensions mounted following a joint US–Israeli offensive on Iranian targets late last month.

"They oppose the imposition of the war on Iran because that's a violation of international law. There's no basis for it. They don't oppose Iran defending itself, but they oppose Iran attacking on the neighboring states as the interpretation, that too is a violation of international law," said Na'eem Jeenah, a senior researcher at the Mapungubwe Institute, capturing Pretoria's stance.

That stance matters in a conflict that has not only exacted a heavy human toll but threatens one of the world's most vital energy arteries. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supplies transit, that has been effectively shut by Iranian action, with shipping traffic plunging as vessels avoid the conflict zone.

The disruption has triggered a dramatic spike in oil and energy prices worldwide, the most severe supply shock in decades.

Investors and markets have reacted accordingly. South Africa's rand has jittered as traders monitor developments in the Middle East, reflecting broader fears about inflation and supply chain volatility.

Yet, geopolitical maneuvering at home and abroad has made neutrality tricky. South Africa's ties with Washington have been frayed by disputes over domestic policies, unfounded accusations of racially targeted violence, and a contentious genocide case filed against Israel over its actions in Palestine.

"The US can make life difficult for South Africa through unilateral sanctions, by restricting trade, raising tariffs, and potentially sidelining the country from forums like the G20, as we’ve seen more recently," said Lwazi Somya, a senior researcher at the Southern African Liaison Office.

Despite these pressures, South Africa's government insists it will not sever its long‑standing diplomatic ties with Iran.

"We have no reason to cut ties with Iran. We are not absolutely uncritical of Iran," said Zane Dangor, South Africa's Director‑General of Foreign Affairs. "The particular relationship with Iran, which is not exactly the kind of relationship that many in the developing world have with Iran. The same with Cuba, the same with Venezuela. We cannot be pulled into the sort of sphere of influence politics that great powers want to pull us into, and that in this instance includes the US."

Across South Africa, ordinary citizens echo a weary desire for restraint and dialogue.

"I think it is very unnecessary, all of it, I just feel the US as a whole is doing very unnecessary and very irrational and dramatic things and I feel all these things could be spoken about rationally," said South African citizen Farina Ruinard, reflecting the frustration of many who see little connection between distant battlefields and daily life at home.

"For me obviously killing is not right, it doesn't matter what is going on, I don't believe you need to resolve something through violence, I feel there could be a better way of resolving things than just going through violence, maybe just sit down and talk, from my experience what has been happening in Iran is not right at all," added South African citizen Shaun Zitha.

South Africa's position is not merely symbolic. As the conflict continues to choke energy supply routes, Africa is already feeling the economic aftershocks. African countries have reported rising fuel prices, supply disruptions and mounting inflationary pressures linked directly to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Across East and West Africa, governments have warned of dwindling fuel supplies, from heavy fuel oil shortages in Mauritius to electricity rationing in South Sudan, and urged citizens to avoid panic buying.

The squeeze is being felt across sectors. Airlines are struggling with soaring jet‑fuel costs as global markets tighten, and shipping firms are rerouting vessels around longer, costlier routes such as the Cape of Good Hope. Refueling hubs along Africa's coasts are reporting record business as traffic diverts from the Gulf.

Even as senior US officials have suggested the conflict could be over in weeks, energy experts caution that prolonged disruptions could have lasting effects on inflation, currency stability and supply chains. With Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel in recent weeks, markets remain on edge over whether supply shocks will abate even if diplomatic channels show signs of thawing.

For South Africa, the crisis represents more than a geopolitical dilemma. It underscores the fragility of a global system in which distant conflicts reverberate across continents. As throngs of diplomats prepare for critical talks aimed at ending the conflict, the decisions made in Washington and Tehran could reverberate not just through the Middle East, but across Africa's economies, currencies and daily lives.