Uncertainty looms as US, Israel and Iran conflict disrupt Africa's aviation corridors in the Middle East

The Middle East, a key transit gateway linking Africa with Europe, Asia, and North America, is facing disruptions as uncertainty from the US-Israel-Iran war slows bookings and forces travelers to reconsider their routes.

The Gulf hub experienced a standstill last month following the initial US-Israeli air strikes, leading to airspace closures and flight cancellations.

Airlines Association of Southern Africa chief executive officer Aaron Munetsi said the scale of disruption has been significant.

"There's been quite a significant number of disruptions regarding flights to, from, and through the Middle East. For example, at a global hub like Dubai International Airport, they lost almost 80% of throughput traffic in the first week of the crisis," Munetsi said.

More than 23,000 flights have been canceled since the conflict began, with daily cancellations peaking at 3,400.

Airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways operate vast networks linking Africa with Europe, Asia, and North America through hubs in Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, which are typically the default stopovers for many African travelers on long-haul journeys.

"For the most part, especially from regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and India, there have been significant disruptions for people planning long-haul travel, because so many critical air routes pass through the Middle East conflict zone," aviation consultant Sean Mendis said.

The crisis has sparked a debate over whether African carriers could seize the opportunity.

According to Munetsi, the potential is real, but only if African airlines act quickly.

"If African airlines are nimble enough to recognize the opportunity and have the capacity—both in terms of aircraft and equipment to handle long-haul flights—they can approach source markets and say: 'Since you are being disrupted and cannot travel through the Middle East, come with us to our hubs in Africa, and we will take you to your final destination,'" he said.

Mendis, however, cautions that the hub-and-spoke model is unlikely to disappear.

"What we may see is that the connecting hub will no longer be in Doha or Dubai, and may, in fact, be in London or Frankfurt instead. But I don't think the hub-and-spoke model will disappear because of this. In markets that cannot support long-haul flights on their own, the choice of hub may change, but connecting flights will still be necessary."