Middle East conflict raises food security risks for Sudan

Editor's note: This series highlights how the Iran war's spillover is affecting Africa. In this episode, Sudan faces growing food insecurity as disruptions to global energy and agricultural supply chains push up fertilizer and fuel costs, threatening already fragile food systems amid ongoing humanitarian challenges.

The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is sending shockwaves beyond the Middle East, with growing implications for global food systems and vulnerable countries such as Sudan.

Fighting in the region has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial corridor for global energy and fertilizer exports.

The waterway links major producers in the Gulf to international markets, and any instability can quickly affect supply chains. While crude oil has been the most visible commodity affected, fertilizers—essential for agricultural production—are also experiencing supply constraints.

Disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have raised concerns about energy markets, with analysts warning that higher natural gas prices could push fertilizer costs even higher.

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly exposed to these disruptions. Countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Mozambique depend heavily on imported fertilizers, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, fertilizer use across the region is already among the lowest globally, making agricultural systems highly vulnerable to further price increases or supply shortages.

Higher fertilizer costs are expected to reduce usage among farmers, particularly smallholders, leading to lower crop yields and reduced food production.

"We are already struggling to afford fertilizer. If prices rise further or supplies stop, we won’t be able to produce enough food," Sudanese farmer Yaseen Ibnawf said in an interview.

Impact on Sudan’s fragile food system

Sudan has been facing a severe humanitarian crisis driven by conflict since 2023, which has disrupted farming, displaced millions, and constrained food production.

The World Food Programme has warned that rising global food and fuel prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, could further strain food access in crisis-affected countries.

In Sudan, where agriculture remains a key source of livelihoods, higher input costs and limited access to fertilizers risk undermining upcoming planting seasons.

Economic analyst Mohamed Alnayer said the conflict's impact could be far-reaching.

"This is a cascading crisis. Supply disruptions, combined with rising energy costs, are making fertilizers unaffordable for vulnerable regions, increasing the risk of hunger and economic instability," he said.

Broader economic and humanitarian risks

Beyond agriculture, rising energy and transport costs are expected to drive up food prices, reduce household purchasing power, and place additional strain on government budgets.

At Port Sudan, a key entry point for imports, the effects are already being felt, as tightening supplies and rising costs create uncertainty for farmers and traders. Experts warn that reduced planting and lower yields in the coming months could lead to smaller harvests, worsening food shortages and increasing hunger risks.

Across the region, the combined impact of supply disruptions and higher prices is expected to exacerbate food insecurity, particularly in countries already grappling with conflict and economic instability.

In Sudan, the intersection of war, economic strain, and global supply shocks is likely to intensify an already critical food security situation.