According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, April marks the peak of the March-April-May rainy season in East Africa. The department says this shift from prolonged drought to unpredictable, heavy rainfall reflects a changing climate, as once-reliable seasonal patterns become increasingly erratic and less dependable for agriculture and planning.

Natural climate cycles such as El Nino and La Nina have always shaped this variability. Kenya has experienced their extremes before, from the devastating floods of the 1997–98 and 2023–2024 El Nino seasons to the prolonged drought during the 2020–2022 La Nina period. The Indian Ocean Dipole has further intensified these swings. But today, the difference lies in how intense and unpredictable these events have become. 

"What we are witnessing is no longer just natural variability. Climate change is amplifying these cycles, making rainfall more intense and less predictable, which directly affects agriculture and livelihoods," Agriculture and Climate Change scientist Dr. Jackson Koimbori said. 

The impact of extreme weather is impossible to ignore. In Nairobi, heavy rains claimed dozens of lives since the start of the rainy season. Floods swept away homes, displaced families, leaving entire neighborhoods submerged. In Western Kenya, the River Nyando burst its banks, forcing evacuations and destroying crops yet another sign of how exposed low-lying areas have become.

Amid the chaos, personal stories bring the crisis into sharp focus. Beatrice Tuju, a 33-year-old mother of five, went missing during the floods in Grogan. Her last call was a desperate one—she was stranded on top of a car as waters rose. Then, silence.

By March 28, 2026, the Kenya National Police Service reported at least 108 deaths, with over 2,700 families displaced and dozens of vehicles swept away. The warning remains clear: the danger is far from over.

Across Africa, the pattern is repeating. Deadly floods in Malawi and landslides in Gamo Zone have claimed lives and destroyed communities, underscoring a troubling reality: extreme weather is no longer rare; it is becoming the norm.

The flooding isn't limited to East Africa.

In South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe, intense rainfall linked to La Nina conditions and amplified by climate change has caused widespread destruction. A World Weather Attribution report found that some areas recorded a year's worth of rain in just 10 days, displacing hundreds of thousands of people. 

The report noted that climate change made these rains up to 40% more intense than they would have been in a cooler world.

Across regions, extreme weather continues to take a heavy toll. In southern Africa, floods and landslides have killed at least 30 people across South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Eswatini. Europe and North Africa have also seen record rainfall, with Spain, Portugal, and Tunisia heavily affected. In Kenya, rising waters in Rift Valley lakes, Turkwel Gorge Dam, and Lake Victoria have displaced over 75,000 households, submerged ecosystems, and disrupted livelihoods around Lake Naivasha, Lake Baringo, and Lake Bogoria.

"Extreme weather is becoming more frequent and disruptive heatwaves, floods, strong winds, and even cold snaps are now the new normal," said Dr. Koimbori. "These events are already hitting livelihoods displacing families, damaging infrastructure, spreading disease, and destroying crops. That's why climate information is a national asset. Early warning systems and impact-based forecasts save lives and guide resilient development. Protecting Kenya's ecosystems and water towers is critical they regulate our climate, secure water resources, and support sustainable growth."

Climate finance unlocks action. Enhancing access to climate finance in Kenya nationally and beyond will better support building Kenya's resilience against climate shocks.

Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, making both rainfall and droughts more extreme and less predictable. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, causing heavier rains, while higher evaporation and shifting weather patterns lead to longer dry spells. In Kenya and East Africa, this has increased rainfall variability, with traditional seasonal patterns like El Nino and the Southern Oscillation becoming less reliable since 2013. The result: rapid climate swings, with extended droughts followed by concentrated, destructive rains, such as those in early 2026. These shifts are already impacting agriculture, water resources, food security, and livelihoods, with projections pointing to even more frequent and severe extremes, Dr. Koimbori said.

But do heavier rains and harsher dry spells characterize a "new normal," where droughts and floods strike within the same year?

"In a world of extreme weather swings, climate-resilient agriculture, water management, early warnings, and disaster preparedness are essential to safeguard lives and livelihoods," Dr Koimbori said. "The challenge isn't just understanding the weather—it's using climate data fast enough to protect communities before disaster strikes."