Researchers and conservation groups have warned that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are heightening risks for whale populations off South Africa's coastline by diverting global shipping traffic into key marine habitats.

A new study presented at a meeting of the International Whaling Commission warned that rerouted commercial vessels traveling around the Cape of Good Hope have sharply raised the danger of ship strikes involving whales.

Researchers from the University of Pretoria said the country’s southwestern coast hosts globally significant whale populations while also serving as a major maritime corridor.

The increase in shipping traffic follows ongoing instability in the Red Sea and Middle East since late 2023, including attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on vessels and disruptions linked to tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch monitor, an average of 89 commercial vessels sailed around southern Africa between March 1 and April 24 this year, compared with 44 during the same period in 2023.

Els Vermeulen, lead researcher at the University of Pretoria’s whale unit, said the growing overlap between whale habitats and shipping lanes has significantly increased the likelihood of collisions.

The report presented to the whaling commission found that modest changes to shipping routes farther offshore could reduce whale strike risks by between 20% and 50% for some species, while adding only about 20 nautical miles to journeys that can exceed 10,000 nautical miles.

Researchers said some shipping companies have already introduced rerouting measures elsewhere to protect marine mammals. Swiss shipping giant Mediterranean Shipping Company has adjusted routes near Greece and Sri Lanka to reduce whale collisions.

Environmental groups are also exploring new technologies, including AI-powered cameras and real-time alert systems to notify ships when whale "superpods" are nearby.

South Africa’s environment ministry said authorities would review scientific findings and work with maritime agencies to identify measures aimed at reducing risks to whales.

Scientists warn that ship collisions remain a major but underreported cause of whale deaths globally, threatening populations still recovering decades after the 1986 international commercial whaling ban.