Africa faces up to $20 billion losses from 'super' El Nino: AfDB

A recent warning that the El Nino weather pattern could become one of the strongest on record if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue is raising concern among governments, financiers and climate experts.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) says such an event could trigger mass migration from severely affected areas and inflict losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion on African economies.

AfDB Director for Climate Change and Green Growth Anthony Nyong said that the impacts would extend beyond agriculture, threatening food and water security, public finances and banking systems, particularly if disasters damage infrastructure and leave already cash-strapped countries struggling to repay loans.

"Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1% to 2% on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent," Nyong said.

Nyong's estimate is the first assessment by a major multilateral development bank of the potential economic cost of a severe El Nino event in Africa. He did not provide a country-by-country breakdown, but warned that the effects were unlikely to be limited to a single season.

The 2023–2024 El Niño brought severe drought to Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding to East Africa, leading to widespread crop failures, rising food prices and record sea-level spikes along parts of the continent’s coastline.

The AfDB estimates that African farmers already face nearly $330 million in lost income this year, while fishing industries could also suffer from rising sea temperatures and stronger storms.

"When these shocks happen, countries take two steps back," Nyong said. "We don’t want our countries to slide into poverty."

The bank plans to intensify its response, with a bank-wide seminar scheduled for September to assess the potential impact of El Nino on both planned and existing investments.

According to Nyong, the AfDB is prepared to restructure projects to help countries manage the effects of El Nino and will work with governments to access additional multilateral financing, including support from the Green Climate Fund, the world’s largest dedicated climate fund.

A United Nations report published in October estimated that developing countries will need about $365 billion annually by 2035 to address climate change, while international public adaptation finance stood at just $26 billion in 2023.

Nyong said Africa could require up to $100 billion this year if the anticipated El Nino proves particularly severe.

Humanitarian pressures would add to the problems, Nyong said, and the bank had identified Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and even Nigeria as countries that could face particularly severe impacts.

"When this El Nino comes there is going to be mass migration," he said, adding that the price of maize — a key food staple in many affected countries — was expected to double. "You are not going to stay put, you are going to move," he said.