Africa is bracing for the possible impacts of a powerful El Nino event that could develop through 2026 and continue into 2027, raising concerns over extreme weather, food security and livelihoods across the continent.

El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The warming can alter atmospheric circulation and disrupt weather patterns thousands of kilometres away.

"There have been observations by the US meteorological agencies around the Pacific Ocean. Whenever the ocean warms up, there is a lot of rearrangement in terms of the climate and how it affects us here in East Africa. What has been observed currently is that there is a four-to-five chance that it's going to be a super El Nino," according to Dr James Mumina, a research scientist at the University of Sussex.

What could it mean for Africa?

The effects of El Nino vary across the continent, depending on the region, season and interaction with other climate systems.

CGTN visited the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, where weather experts are crunching decades of weather-related data, which is particularly significant for countries including Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Sudan, where millions of people depend on seasonal rains for farming and livestock.

"For the upcoming October to December season, which is an important rainfall season particularly for Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania, El Nino is likely to result in above-normal rainfall," Hussein Said, a meteorologist at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center said.

The region is already experiencing significant climate variability, with some areas facing drought while others contend with flooding and intense rainfall.

"For the October to December season, the signals are even stronger. El Nino will have a stronger impact during the October to December season compared to the current season. We have an over 80% chance that the season is going to be above normal," Said added.

Turning forecasts into action

According to climate experts, the key concern is not only how strong the El Nino becomes, but whether governments and communities can act early enough to reduce its impact.

Seasonal forecasts can help authorities pre-position emergency supplies, strengthen flood preparedness, advise farmers on planting decisions, protect water resources and prepare health facilities for potential emergencies.

"The first gap is the last mile between a forecast and a decision. In OND 2023, and again during the devastating long rains of March to May 2024 in Kenya, which killed around 300 people and affected 42 of our 47 counties, the forecasts were broadly right. What lagged was converting them into evacuations, pre-positioned supplies and pre-emptive water management," Dr. Mumina said.

For communities, timely and accessible information can help people make decisions before extreme weather strikes.

"What IGAD is doing is trying to transition the region from more response-oriented, reactive approaches to proactive approaches. IGAD has developed a regional roadmap on anticipatory action, which means that based on a forecast, you start acting. You don't wait for the drought or floods to impact communities or their assets," said Dr. Ahmed Amdihun, Head of Disaster Risk Management at IGAD.

As scientists continue to monitor the evolving El Nino conditions, governments across Africa are being urged to strengthen preparedness and ensure climate warnings reach communities in time.

The African Union has called for collective preparedness through stronger early warning systems, advising that climate inaction could cost some African economies over 5% of their GDP.

Contributed by Regina Mulea