Governments across Eastern and Southern Africa are sounding the alarm as meteorological agencies warn of extreme weather ahead, driven by a severe El Nino weather pattern. 

In Kenya, officials are bracing for above-average rainfall that could trigger flash floods and mudslides across vulnerable regions.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that recurs roughly every two to seven years and typically lasts about a year. In East Africa, the primary concern is torrential rainfall, heavy flash flooding, and mudslides. 

Kenya, the region's largest economy, is expected to bear a significant share of the impact, with more than 1.5 million people potentially at risk.

In Nairobi, the government has convened a national forum to prepare for the worst-case scenario ahead of the anticipated El Nino rains. The gathering is expected to mobilize resources and raise awareness ahead of the October–December rainy season, as authorities work to get ahead of a threat they say could strain emergency response systems nationwide.

"We are talking about 1.5 million people who might be affected, 500,000 might be displaced, and landslides are going to affect about 450,000 people," David Samoei, Director of the National Disaster Operations Center, said.

The warnings have prompted Kenyan authorities to ramp up coordination between national and county disaster response teams, with the aim of pre-positioning relief supplies, identifying flood-prone areas, and raising public awareness before the rains intensify.

While Kenya and much of East Africa prepare for excess rainfall, countries including Namibia, South Africa, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, and Botswana are bracing for extreme, severe dry spells, crop failures, and acute water shortages.

The United Nations Environment Program has also stressed the importance of acting ahead of extreme weather events.

"Preparedness must be informed by science, and action must come before the emergency," Margaret Oduk, from the United Nations Environment Program, said. 

Many governments across Africa have pledged readiness for the coming season. But for the millions of people living in high-risk areas, from flood-prone valleys in Kenya to drought-stricken farmlands in Southern Africa, assurances alone may not be enough.

Communities on the front lines say they want to see tangible action: early warning systems tested and functional, evacuation routes cleared, relief stockpiles in place, and support reaching vulnerable households before disaster strikes, not after.

With the October-December rains approaching, the focus is increasingly on whether Kenya can turn its warnings and contingency plans into timely action before extreme weather strikes.