A strong El Niño is developing in the Pacific and is expected to intensify towards the end of 2026. 

In Africa, the effects are likely to vary by region, with wetter conditions expected in parts of East Africa and a higher risk of drought in parts of Southern Africa. The weather pattern could affect food production, water supplies, health and livelihoods.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says El Niño is already established and is expected to become a very strong event later this year. The organization puts the chance of El Niño continuing through February 2027 at almost 100%. El Niño events of this strength are rare, with previous exceptionally strong events occurring in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

El Niño and climate change

El Niño is a natural climate pattern and is different from long-term climate change.

The WMO says there is no evidence that climate change is making El Niño itself more frequent or stronger. However, a warmer atmosphere and ocean can affect the severity of some extreme weather linked to climate patterns.

Africa is already dealing with significant climate-related impacts.

WMO's State of the Climate in Africa 2025 report says extreme weather and climate events affected at least 13 million people and caused more than 3,000 reported deaths across Africa in 2025. Floods accounted for more than half of the reported events, while drought affected more than 8.5 million people in East Africa.

The current El Niño is therefore developing while many communities are already dealing with weather-related shocks.

Its effects vary from one region to another and can also be influenced by other climate patterns, including the Indian Ocean Dipole.

East Africa: Wetter conditions expected

The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to be warmer and wetter than normal during the October-December period, according to the WMO and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC).

The season is important for countries including Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. ICPAC forecasts a high chance of above-normal rainfall across large parts of the region. In some areas, the additional rain could improve water supplies and pasture. In other areas, excessive rainfall can damage crops, roads and other infrastructure and displace communities. It can also increase the risk of water- and vector-borne diseases.

The October-December rains provide a large share of annual rainfall in parts of the Greater Horn, making the forecast particularly important for agriculture and water resources.

What happened in 2023?

The Greater Horn of Africa experienced widespread flooding during the October-November 2023 rainy season after several years of drought. The rainfall improved water availability and pasture in some drought-affected areas. Flooding, however, damaged crops and infrastructure and displaced communities.

WMO reported at least 352 deaths and 2.4 million people displaced across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. The heavy rains occurred during El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. 

The 2023 experience is relevant to the current forecast because the region is again expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the October-December season.

Southern Africa: Higher drought risk

The outlook is different in Southern Africa.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates a more than 50 percent probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, extending into parts of Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar. The FAO says the most recent El Niño cycle brought the region's worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance and pushing more than eight million people into food insecurity.

A new strong El Niño could add to those pressures if dry conditions develop across major agricultural areas.

Food security

The possible impact on food supplies is already prompting action.

The FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have launched a joint appeal to protect 8.8 million people from the effects of the 2026-27 El Niño. The agencies say they are already positioned to provide anticipatory assistance to about 1.2 million people expected to be affected.

The assistance is designed to reach vulnerable households before the worst impacts, helping them protect food supplies, livestock and livelihoods.

WFP has also been expanding its anticipatory-action programs, which allow assistance to be provided before an extreme weather event. This is particularly important in areas where households are already facing food insecurity.

Health risks

The expected increase in rainfall in parts of East Africa is also prompting health preparations.

Humanitarian agencies say the danger isn't the weather alone, it's that El Niño is hitting communities already strained by conflict, displacement and underfunded aid budgets. 

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said Eastern and Southern Africa experienced one of the worst cholera outbreaks in decades during the 2023-24 El Niño period, with drought and flooding pushing people towards unsafe water sources and contributing to the spread of the disease.

"Excessive rainfall in Africa will likely increase the spread of malaria and waterborne diseases such as cholera, while crop loss will worsen hunger and malnutrition," said Peter Ofware, Kenya country director at Helen Keller International, in comments to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. He said women and children would be hit hardest.

A World Health Organization Africa regional office study covering 2022-2023 found that cholera cases increased sharply during both floods and droughts. Drought conditions were associated with nearly four times as many infections as normal periods, while flooding can spread contaminated water. 

UNICEF has identified health, nutrition, water and sanitation as key areas of concern as El Niño strengthens. It estimates that more than 162 million children in Eastern and Southern Africa could be exposed to its effects.

What governments are doing

Governments and regional agencies are already putting measures in place ahead of the October-December rainfall season.

In Kenya, the government has activated an El Niño preparedness plan covering flood mitigation, evacuation arrangements, emergency supplies and protection of vulnerable infrastructure. The National Disaster Operations Center and county disaster management teams are also expected to coordinate the response during the rainy season.

Kenya has also established a crisis communication framework involving agencies including the Kenya Meteorological Department, roads and water authorities. The aim is to improve coordination and make sure warnings reach the public.

At the regional level, ICPAC is providing governments with seasonal forecasts and updates on rainfall and other climate risks across the Greater Horn of Africa.

In South Sudan, the WFP and the government have launched the country's first drought anticipatory-action program. The initiative is focused on helping vulnerable communities in Eastern Equatoria prepare for worsening dry conditions before they cause greater losses.

The FAO and the WFP are also expanding anticipatory action across countries facing El Niño-related risks. During the previous 2023-24 El Niño, the two agencies supported more than three million people through measures taken before the worst impacts.