When reports of milk shortages began emerging across Kenya, we knew that to truly understand the situation, we would have to go to the source: the farmers themselves.

So, we set off for Mundoro Village Centre, an area bordering Nairobi. The region is part of Kenya's dairy belt, where more than thousands of smallholder farmers produce over 80% of the country's milk supply.

We arrived just in time to catch the day's second milking session.

For more than 20 years, Joseph has earned a living from dairy farming. On a normal day, he would collect at least 120 litres of milk from his herd of 15 cows.

But this year, things have been different.

A prolonged dry spell has reduced pasture and fodder availability. To keep their herds producing milk, Joseph and other farmers have been forced to buy increasingly expensive commercial feeds.

"Right now, we are importing some feed from Uganda," Joseph told me. "And we still have to supplement it with other feeds."

This has driven up production costs, even as the milk output continues to fall. 

Joseph's neighbour, Samuel Wainaina, is also a dairy farmer. He says it costs him about 60 Kenyan shillings (about $0.5) to produce a kilogram of milk, a figure he says is well above what middlemen pay him.

The high cost of farm inputs is a longstanding challenge. Farmers say it is now pushing some out of the industry, further reducing on milk supplies.

And in a time of scarce pasture, the impact of the drop in production has sent ripples across the country. 

Supermarkets and retail shops are feeling the impact with poorly stocked shelves. In some instances, buyers have been restricted to only a few packets of milk each, while the milk prices have shot up.  

Kenya is Africa’s leading milk producer, with an annual production output of about 5.4 billion litres. But between June and July, The Kenya Dairy Board says milk supplies to milk processors dropped by over three million litres.

In the face of the ongoing milk shortage, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture and Livestock Development, Mutahi Kagwe, has warned consumers that urban centers could face an even deeper shortage if the drought persists.

But industry regulators expect the country’s milk supply to stabilize once the upcoming seasonal rains restore the pastures. As they watch the situation unfold, farmers tell us that with more support from the government they could meet the country’s demand for dairy, with more milk left over for further value addition.

Without more investment they say, the rainy season might only be a temporary respite, as high farm input prices continue to keep the sector, and the farmers themselves from reaching their full potential.

"Unless we break this chain, the farmer will experience no progress and no prosperity. And eventually, each and every person will end up leaving dairy farming."

As we left Mundoro, farmers were sending off the very last of the day's milk to processors — the industry holding tight as stakeholders hope for the rains that could change their fortunes.