Millions of people in Somalia face the threat of renewed flooding as climate experts warn of potentially heavy El Nino-enhanced rains between October and December, raising fears of worsening hunger, displacement and destruction of livelihoods.

In the central town of Jowhar, farmers have a difficult decision: plant their crops and risk losing them to floods or leave their land uncultivated and struggle to feed their families. Communities along the Shabelle and Juba rivers are particularly concerned about the possibility of the rivers bursting their banks.

The warning brings back memories of 2023, when severe flooding affected nearly two million people and displaced more than half a million.

For people already living in displacement camps, the prospect of heavy rainfall is especially frightening.

"We are terrified of the upcoming rain. After three years of not having good rainfall, it feels like it will return with a vengeance," said Kamillo Muse, a resident of Ceeynu Nasri Displacement Camp.

"If it pours, forget those living in displacement camps, even people in proper houses will be forced to flee," she added.

The threat extends beyond farming communities. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) estimates that 3.3 million people live in informal displacement settlements across Somalia, where makeshift shelters and inadequate sanitation could leave families particularly exposed to flooding.

Aid agencies, including the ICRC and the Somali Red Crescent Society, are stepping up preparations by distributing sandbags, positioning emergency supplies and training volunteers in boat rescue operations. Medical and nutritional supplies have also been delivered to flood-prone areas to help health facilities continue operating during emergencies.

However, humanitarian organizations warn that their ability to respond has been weakened by declining funding.

"Better preparation and better data. That's the good news compared to 2023," said Antoine Grand, head of the ICRC in Somalia.

"The bad news is that humanitarian funding and capacity in general have seriously decreased due to drastic reduction in humanitarian funding since 2025," he added.

With conflict, displacement, and food insecurity already placing pressure on vulnerable households, above-average rainfall could deepen the crisis. For many Somalis, the coming months will test both community resilience and the ability of aid agencies to respond before floodwaters arrive.