El Niño-linked dry spell disrupts fresh milk supply in Kenya

Prolonged dry conditions linked to the El Niño climate pattern have disrupted fresh milk supplies in Kenya, leaving supermarket shelves empty and pushing up retail prices as dairy farmers struggle with rising production costs.

In the capital, Nairobi, consumers have faced intermittent shortages of fresh milk in recent weeks, with supermarkets struggling to maintain consistent supplies amid growing demand.

Milk is a staple in many Kenyan households, and the shortages have forced consumers to search across multiple retail outlets for their preferred brands.

A Nairobi resident said finding fresh milk had become increasingly difficult, with some popular brands disappearing from supermarket shelves.

Retailers say deliveries often sell out within hours. One supermarket manager reported that fresh milk arriving in the morning is frequently sold out between 9 a.m. and 11 a.m. due to high demand.

The shortages have also driven up retail prices, adding pressure on household budgets already strained by the rising cost of living.

Dry conditions and rising feed costs hit production

According to the Kenya Dairy Board, formal-sector processors collected at least 81 million liters of raw milk in July, representing a 5.8% decline compared with the same period last year.

Victor Kipruto, a dairy farm manager, described the situation as one of the most challenging periods for the industry, citing a 3.7% decline in milk production.

He warned that shrinking profit margins could force producers to pass additional costs on to consumers, further increasing the cost of living.

Nora Makena, a farm technical supervisor, said animal feed expenses had risen sharply, accounting for approximately 70% of production costs, compared with 55% last year.

The increase has forced some farmers to reduce the amount of feed given to their cattle, affecting both milk yields and the animals' physical condition.

Agricultural officials say the dry conditions associated with the period preceding El Niño rains have contributed to declining pasture availability and reduced milk deliveries to processors.

Expected rainfall offers hope for dairy sector

The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts that approximately 80% of the country could receive above-average rainfall between October and December under the influence of El Niño.

The anticipated rains could help regenerate pasture, improve feed availability and gradually restore milk production.

However, agricultural experts caution that recovery will not be immediate, as farmers will need time to rebuild feed supplies and improve livestock productivity before milk deliveries return to normal levels.

Meanwhile, the Kenyan government says it is preparing measures to stabilize the dairy industry, including distributing animal feed, strengthening market monitoring and improving cold-chain infrastructure to reduce milk losses.

Authorities also plan to promote alternative sources of dairy products, including camel, goat and buffalo milk, as part of efforts to diversify production and reduce the industry's dependence on cattle farming.

For consumers, however, relief will depend on how quickly improved weather conditions translate into higher milk production and more reliable supplies in retail outlets.