Editor's note: Talk Africa is a weekly talk show that brings together guests from across Africa and beyond to discuss pressing African issues and global topics, amplifying the continent's voice and showcasing diverse perspectives and independent thinking. This episode explores Africa’s dilemma in response to US-Israel war on Iran and examines how to buffer itself from the spillover effects. This article will be presented in two parts.

As the conflict drags on between the US, Israel and Iran, experts are warning that Africa is going to face a cascade of consequences that threaten its economic stability and regional security. So, how can it be cushioned from the geopolitical shocks?

The "Windfall" illusion

Nigeria’s Foreign Minister, Yusuf Tuga, recently said the country’s untapped reserves offer an alternative source of crude and gas at a time when global flows are vulnerable.

However, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, Professor of Global Governance and Public Policy at the University of Bristol, cautions against over-optimism regarding rising oil prices. While a price increase can generate immediate revenue for oil-producing countries, a significant portion of these gains is often "cancelled out" by structural inefficiencies.

“Many of these African countries, even the crude exporters, also import refined oil. So, what may appear to be gained from the increase in crude prices could easily be cancelled out by the increase in refined oil imports, as well as in fertilizer prices,” he says.

Another windfall could come from trade disruptions as shipping companies reroute to South Africa. “Strategically, Durban could become a major maritime hub in the world,” Professor Okereke says, adding that supply chains will lengthen, and goods prices will rise as a result.

He emphasizes that history is a harsh teacher: immediate windfalls rarely translate to long-term economic stability unless those funds are aggressively reinvested into domestic infrastructure.

Changing world order

The attack on Iran by the US and Israel puts into question the rules-based order that global institutions were designed to uphold, with the aim of maintaining international peace.

According to Dr. Mustafa Yusuf Ali, Founder and Chairman of the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies, "the rules-based international order is no longer there."

He adds that "multilateralism is dead, not because the UN, AU, or EU wanted it dead, but because US President Donald Trump wanted to kill multilateralism so he could have a free hand and do whatever he wanted."

Dr. Ali further says that African leaders "have to put their houses in order and focus on strengthening the African Union and regional economic blocs to ensure they are able to contain ongoing conflicts, some of which have been fueled by countries outside Africa."

Zeenat Adam, Deputy Executive Director of the Afro-Middle East Centre, warns that the "rule of law has been thrown out the window," specifically citing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza as a turning point. She calls for collaboration within the Global South, pointing to the recently signed South Africa-Brazil defense pact as an example of efforts to prevent “hegemonic takeovers.” Without a unified defense strategy, African nations remain vulnerable to external interference in their domestic leadership.

“If we cannot be unified within the African Union, and external powers continue to interfere with how we manage relations within the continent and how we address conflicts, we're not going to be able to resolve anything, nor take advantage of the opportunity to rise above what is happening around us," she says.

Despite these vulnerabilities, Dr. Ali identifies a silver lining in current African diplomacy: a shift toward strategic non-alignment. While many nations have historical ties to both Iran and the West, they are increasingly choosing "strategic silence" or impartiality. Rather than being forced into a binary choice, these countries are realigning their strategies by refusing to be drawn into conflicts that do not serve regional interests, keeping doors open to both East and West, and moving away from direct alignment toward a more pragmatic foreign policy.

The cost of hesitation

While the global order shifts, the immediate internal reality for many African nations remains precarious. Zeenat and Dr. Ali warn that a "wait and see" approach to global crises is a luxury the continent can no longer afford, especially as economic and food security risks mount.

Zeenat feels that Africa’s current response has been slow and hopes for firmer decision-making, rather than waiting for guidance from external powers.

Dr. Ali, for his part, notes a staggering failure in early preparation, revealing that Africa still imports a large proportion of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, two nations currently engaged in a protracted war. This dependency illustrates a broader trend of “falling short” in preparedness. For him, the lesson is clear: African sovereignty cannot exist as long as the continent’s basic survival depends on the stability of distant powers.

In terms of energy, Professor Okereke also highlights Africa’s unpreparedness: unlike many developed nations that maintain massive reserves to stabilize prices during crises, most African states lack the infrastructure to stockpile energy. Another lesson lies in Africa’s vast renewable energy resources, which remain largely untapped.

“Africa should take this opportunity to engage in deep reflection. Africa has one of the best solar irradiances in the world, yet it has attracted only 2 percent of global investment in renewable energy. This is a warning that if we continue to neglect our basic resources—wind, solar, and geothermal energy—while remaining dependent on oil, we will continue to be highly vulnerable to these kinds of shocks,” Okereke says.

Zeenat argues that while the African Union’s “early warning systems” have historically lacked teeth, the time for passive observation has ended. To avoid political unrest fueled by external shocks, the focus must shift from continental bureaucracy to regional cooperation.

As the global landscape shifts under the weight of persistent conflict in the Middle East and a crumbling international order, Africa’s challenge is no longer merely weathering the storm, but ensuring that it does not become collateral damage.

For more analysis, click here for Part I.